Saturday, February 12, 2011

Population Projections Predict U.S. Manufacturing Growth

I've quoted Joel Kotkin's book The Next Hundred Million:  America in 2050 many, many times in this column.  Kotkin's premise is that manufacturing can revive in the U.S. based on the demographic fact that the U.S. is growing population while the countries with which we compete for production and GDP are withering from population challenges.

I decided to go find the numbers for myself this time.  It's confirmed.

China, Germany, and Japan are the countries that rank behind the United States in Gross Domestic Product among industrialized countries.  See the list at Wikipedia.

The U.S., alone, is growing population through a favorable birth rate and immigration.

That fact bodes well for the U.S. to continue to be the global leader in production and manufacturing.

Be sure to see the charts from the UN's World Population Prospects website to generate your own.

A few observations from these population projections:
  • China's population will actually DECLINE after 2030.  That's not far off considering the production-age population has, likely, already begun to decline.
  • Germany and Japan's populations have already begun to DECLINE.  By 2050, more than 14% and 20% respective reductions in population are predicted for these two one-time economic powerhouses.
  • The United States will, during the same time, ADD 100 million people by 2050.
It's easy to see.  The World will need to turn to the U.S. to produce in the coming decades.

Just like Kotkin said.




Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Saturday, February 12, 2011; 7:28:22 PM.

China
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050
YearPopulation
20001 266 954
20051 312 253
20101 354 146
20151 395 998
20201 431 155
20251 453 140
20301 462 468
20351 462 351
20401 455 055
20451 440 289
20501 417 045

Germany
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050
YearPopulation
200082 075
200582 409
201082 057
201581 346
202080 422
202579 258
203077 854
203576 234
204074 435
204572 503
205070 504

Japan
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050
YearPopulation
2000126 706
2005127 449
2010126 995
2015125 791
2020123 664
2025120 793
2030117 424
2035113 733
2040109 804
2045105 740
2050101 659

United States of America
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050
YearPopulation
2000287 842
2005302 741
2010317 641
2015332 334
2020346 153
2025358 735
2030369 981
2035379 999
2040388 907
2045396 766
2050403 932

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